How Mr. Robot Feels about Hit Caps

You’re probably here because you saw Mr. Robot’s new added feature: using an ‘at least’ condition to get to hit caps. Before you check the box to force hit caps, he’s hoping he can change your mind ONE LAST TIME!

Getting exactly to the hit cap doesn’t do anything magical for you. It means you will never miss, but that comes at a cost. It means you give up another stat, like crit, haste or mastery. Mr. Robot asks you: would you rather miss ONCE per boss fight, if you could crit more often… resulting in more DPS?

Here are some stats on missing

Let’s assume you get out 630 attacks on an average boss fight. Mr. Robot gets people to within 0.05% to 0.1% of the hit cap. But let’s say he drops you as low a 0.25% under the hit cap (14.75% for casters and 7.25% for other classes). You have the following chances to miss:

  • A 20% chance to NEVER miss during the boss fight
  • A 32.5% chance to miss ONLY ONCE during the boss fight
  • A 1.6% chance to miss FIVE times during the boss fight
  • A 0.0005% chance to miss TEN time (yes, the 0′s and decimal are right)

Let’s put this into perspective. This means that if you are 0.25% under the hit cap, you have about a 50% chance to never miss or only miss once. So on average, every other boss that you fight, you’ll only miss once, or never at all.

Now Mr. Robot wants to ask, “Do you want to take your 50% chance, and add some damage to it?”

If Mr. Robot can work out the numbers on his own, he might put you slightly under the cap, but he’ll give you more haste, crit, strength, int, or whatever stat your heart desires. This will allow you to hit harder, better, faster, stronger… on every single hit! And you get all of this for a tiny chance to miss more than once, on every other fight.

Worried you’ll miss that one crucial shot, and the raid will wipe?

EDIT: A revised version of this section is coming soon.  This is a very common concern that “hit-cappers” bring up, but it really isn’t a good counter argument.  Mr. Robot is working on a detailed mathy description of why.

But if Hit’s stat weight is higher than my next stat, why would it ever make sense to not be hit capped?

Mr. Robot wants to get you the highest score (which translates into the highest DPS for damagers, damage mitigation for tanks, etc). It’s easy to agree that any hit rating over the cap is wasted. But what isn’t as obvious is that getting exactly to the hit cap isn’t always the best option.

Let’s use an example to understand this better. Let’s say +Hit is your highest weighted stat with a weight of 2. Let’s say Crit has a rating of 1.8 and Mastery 1.2. The thing to focus on in this example is that Crit is much more valuable than Mastery, AND there are a finite number of combinations to get you to an exact number. On to the example: it’s possible that to get you exactly to the hit cap, you’d have to reforge all of your Crit to Hit. BUT!!! Let’s say you can get to within 20 Hit rating of the cap but you preserve all of your Crit, and instead reforge all of your mastery – since Mastery is much less valuable than Crit. Your final score would be higher. Here are some made up numbers as an example:

To get exactly hit capped:
Lose 600 Crit:   -1080
Gain 600 Hit (get exactly to cap): +1200
Total Score change: +120

To get within 20 of hit cap:
Lose 580 Mastery:  -696
Gain 580 Hit (20 below hit cap):  +1160
Total Score change: +464

Ready to give in yet?

Mr. Robot hopes so, because if you do NOT check the box to force the hit cap, he’s free to get you other awesome stats, like crit, haste, or whatever blows your dress up. He wants you to be a dps MACHINE!

But, if you really need to get that hit cap, he’ll let you check that box.  Note that checking the box will often get you slightly over the cap — it’s rare that the perfect combination exists to hit the cap dead-on.  It’s also rare that the dead-on combination is the highest-scoring option that also caps you.  Remember — speed and score are the two most important things to Mr. Robot, and he’ll always try to give you the best of both.

  • Urza

    But what if I’ll reforge into hit all of my mastery and that 20 of crit?

    • Proz

      Where is the “just reforge a little bit, not 40% of a stat” button in-game? Because I would like to find that, as I’ve obviously missed it.

      You can’t just cherry pick on one single item, and wind up at cap, typically. You’re either going to waste stats going OVER the cap, or you’re going to still wind up under the cap. It’s not worth it. It. Is. Not. Worth. It. That 20 crit could potentially make up for a single miss by doubling the damage done by another attack that otherwise might not have critted.

      Also, lost in the discussion about the total improbability that you’ll miss “at the wrong second” is the absurdity that you CAN miss at exactly the wrong second. Because on the VAST majority of those 450 second fights, a single miss (or more) are extremely unlikely to be the difference between a wipe and a kill. Only in a situation in which the boss has less health than you would hit him for in a single damaging attack, enrages, and performs an instant kill maneuver, would that situation be applicable.

      So not only do you only have the 1 in 197,750 chance to miss at any particular second in that 450 second fight…you then have to multiply that by the number of times in which you’ve wiped at a sub-damaging-attack health amount, on a fight in which your increase in damage from other secondary stats didn’t make up for the loss of damage from the missed attack.

      Want to bet that makes the probability of that scenario go from ridiculously high, to astronomically high?

      • Shiboicarus

        I think they were talking more about interrupts and CC’s

  • Urza

    But what if I’ll reforge into hit all of my mastery and that 20 of crit?

    • Proz

      Where is the “just reforge a little bit, not 40% of a stat” button in-game? Because I would like to find that, as I’ve obviously missed it.

      You can’t just cherry pick on one single item, and wind up at cap, typically. You’re either going to waste stats going OVER the cap, or you’re going to still wind up under the cap. It’s not worth it. It. Is. Not. Worth. It. That 20 crit could potentially make up for a single miss by doubling the damage done by another attack that otherwise might not have critted.

      Also, lost in the discussion about the total improbability that you’ll miss “at the wrong second” is the absurdity that you CAN miss at exactly the wrong second. Because on the VAST majority of those 450 second fights, a single miss (or more) are extremely unlikely to be the difference between a wipe and a kill. Only in a situation in which the boss has less health than you would hit him for in a single damaging attack, enrages, and performs an instant kill maneuver, would that situation be applicable.

      So not only do you only have the 1 in 197,750 chance to miss at any particular second in that 450 second fight…you then have to multiply that by the number of times in which you’ve wiped at a sub-damaging-attack health amount, on a fight in which your increase in damage from other secondary stats didn’t make up for the loss of damage from the missed attack.

      Want to bet that makes the probability of that scenario go from ridiculously high, to astronomically high?

  • chuckbroozeg

    If you go near to the cap the effective of an stat goes down. this is the raw information of this article. if you are near the cap the weights are changing because of the low chances to miss (oder dodge by expertise). lets see you have the chance to loss one attack and gets the chance of more crits. and this effect is stronger with every point you go on to the cap.

  • chuckbroozeg

    If you go near to the cap the effective of an stat goes down. this is the raw information of this article. if you are near the cap the weights are changing because of the low chances to miss (oder dodge by expertise). lets see you have the chance to loss one attack and gets the chance of more crits. and this effect is stronger with every point you go on to the cap.

  • Guest

    Hey Mr Robot,

    I understand that the sims take in to account the low probability of such events etc however I must say that as a Monk I do wonder whether the risk is worthwhile. Our Rising Sun Kick not only does a lot of damage but provides us with a 15% damage buff on an 8 second cooldown.

    I’m not sure what other events could make up for this 8 second 15% dps loss + the loss from the RSK. I imagine an extra few crits on the majority of attempts eventually outweighs it, but idk if it’s worthwhile risking such a big hit on a few attempts for such tiny gains over many attempts.

    • Ampersand

      The chance of missing Rising Sun Kick is extremely low (in these cases) and you also get your Chi refunded if Rising Sun Kick misses, This means you only lose 1 GCD along with the damage the ability would have dealt (which is less than some other classes lose from missing an attack, should they have costed Mana or something else, or if it was an attack with a much longer cooldown with a higher payout), and since the debuff lasts for 15 seconds whereas Rising Sun Kick’s cooldown is 8 seconds, you generally have time to reapply the debuff long before it wears off, since Rising Sun Kick should be used on cooldown anyway. The chance of missing two Rising Sun Kicks in a row is astronomically small at these levels of miss chance.

    • Ampersand

      The chance of missing Rising Sun Kick is extremely low (in these cases) and you also get your Chi refunded if Rising Sun Kick misses, This means you only lose 1 GCD along with the damage the ability would have dealt (which is less than some other classes lose from missing an attack, should they have costed Mana or something else, or if it was an attack with a much longer cooldown with a higher payout), and since the debuff lasts for 15 seconds whereas Rising Sun Kick’s cooldown is 8 seconds, you generally have time to reapply the debuff long before it wears off, since Rising Sun Kick should be used on cooldown anyway. The chance of missing two Rising Sun Kicks in a row is astronomically small at these levels of miss chance.

  • That Hunter Dude

    I do agree that reaching 100% on all caps is silly.
    Your argument is somewhat lacking though.

    If im not HIT capped I lower my Crit chance. As only attacks that hit can crit.

    • http://twitter.com/solitha Kathy Clifford

      It’s not lacking. By accepting that tiny, tiny chance to miss one time, AMR is free to stack a higher crit chance on all those attacks that hit. Which is most likely to be all of them anyway. That’s the whole point.

    • http://twitter.com/solitha Kathy Clifford

      It’s not lacking. By accepting that tiny, tiny chance to miss one time, AMR is free to stack a higher crit chance on all those attacks that hit. Which is most likely to be all of them anyway. That’s the whole point.

    • http://twitter.com/zbrahd mike ekert

      This is actually completely wrong. This is some mentality that was carried over from as far back as Vanilla.

      The combat table does not roll to see if hit, and then see if that hit is a critical. You roll to see if the attack is a hit/crit/miss, one roll, not two.

      • Worshaka

        It does in some circumstances

      • itsadam

        Incorrect, LvB for Elemental Shamans is a 100% Crit Chance with Flameshock up, see how many hits you land with 0% hit.

  • MBar

    Arguing in the guise of a mechanical being that they cannot see the logic in removing a variable from an equation is … well, not logical. The Force Cap option should have been there from the start as it should be up to the user to decide, and frankly arguing about this when your optimisations are based on a static set of stat weights which somehow apply to every character of that spec across the board and have no consideration of the actual DPS you are arguing for is fairly ridiculous.

    • Anglave

      The thing is, the user doesn’t decide what’s optimal. The optimal solution is dictated by the rules of the game. Mr. Robot is an optimizer, and being *exactly* at the cap is rarely optimal.

      Arguing that the user should get to decide is equivalent to saying “I want to pick things which are not optimal because I should be allowed to do that because I want to.” It’s a DPS loss. Why did you come to an optimization site if you wanted a sub-optimal solution?

      Should Mr. Robot also have an option to not use Expertise gems, enchants, or reforges for casters “because it feels wrong”? It’s been suggested!

      There are some valid (not “Because it should be up to the user”) arguments for forcing the hit cap. And Mr. Robot is now providing the option.

    • Anglave

      The thing is, the user doesn’t decide what’s optimal. The optimal solution is dictated by the rules of the game. Mr. Robot is an optimizer, and being *exactly* at the cap is rarely optimal.

      Arguing that the user should get to decide is equivalent to saying “I want to pick things which are not optimal because I should be allowed to do that because I want to.” It’s a DPS loss. Why did you come to an optimization site if you wanted a sub-optimal solution?

      Should Mr. Robot also have an option to not use Expertise gems, enchants, or reforges for casters “because it feels wrong”? It’s been suggested!

      There are some valid (not “Because it should be up to the user”) arguments for forcing the hit cap. And Mr. Robot is now providing the option.

      • Theck

        Regarding “Why did you come to an optimization site if you wanted a sub-optimal solution?”: A slightly sub-optimal solution from AMR is likely far better than what someone would be able to do by hand in a reasonable amount of time, provided that they were even interested in spending the time doing so. There’s an obvious efficiency benefit to letting the computer do the math, even if the desired result isn’t perfect.

        • Krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

          Like the fuck out of this post, please let me decide soft caps that i would like to reach for ALL stats including Crit & Mastery, we want to be able to chose how much of each stat we aim for but still have a computer calculate the best way to get there because testing the different combinations costs gold at the reforger.

        • Krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

          Like the fuck out of this post, please let me decide soft caps that i would like to reach for ALL stats including Crit & Mastery, we want to be able to chose how much of each stat we aim for but still have a computer calculate the best way to get there because testing the different combinations costs gold at the reforger.

  • http://profiles.google.com/epiccollision Epic Collision

    even after the article explains it and breaks the numbers down and they still can’t get it, time to cut your losses you are screaming into the wind, and getting spittle all over your face.

  • Epic Collision

    even after the article explains it and breaks the numbers down and they still can’t get it, time to cut your losses you are screaming into the wind, and getting spittle all over your face.

  • Tabb

    I’ve actually tried to simcraft my character (draenei elemental shaman) several times with two possible settings, (1) being over hit cap by 0.02% and (2) according to mr.robot which is 0.32% below cap.
    (1) gave me an average of 53066 dps, on this i had put red 160 int gems in all sockets that didn’t give 60+ int or more in socket bonus and had everything reforged into haste as prio.
    (2) gave me an average of 52894 dps (which is a small loss compared to the above but can make a huge diffrence at the end of the fight), on this i put the gems that mr.robot told me to being the ones that give the socket bonus.
    So my conclution is that hit cap is the way to go and skip the socket if its anything else of below 60+ stat.

  • Tabb

    I’ve actually tried to simcraft my character (draenei elemental shaman) several times with two possible settings, (1) being over hit cap by 0.02% and (2) according to mr.robot which is 0.32% below cap.
    (1) gave me an average of 53066 dps, on this i had put red 160 int gems in all sockets that didn’t give 60+ int or more in socket bonus and had everything reforged into haste as prio.
    (2) gave me an average of 52894 dps (which is a small loss compared to the above but can make a huge diffrence at the end of the fight), on this i put the gems that mr.robot told me to being the ones that give the socket bonus.
    So my conclution is that hit cap is the way to go and skip the socket if its anything else of below 60+ stat.

    • Pookei

      Which sim had a faster “downing” time?

  • Rauxon

    Your understanding of statistics is flawed. VERY flawed.

    If you have a 0.25% chance to miss, then you miss ON AVERAGE 1/400 attacks.

    Therefore the chance that the “attack that matters” misses, is 1/400. The length of the fight is completely irrelevant.

    If you are talking about a specific second, rather than a specific attack, then weapon speed matters (if you didn’t attack in that second, you couldn’t hit or miss).

    To put it another way, the length of the fight is proportional to the number of attacks. The number of misses is proportional to the number of attacks – it cancels out.

    • AskMrRobot

      We realize there was a minor error in one section of the above article — we’re going to rewrite it to more clearly explain the point.

  • Rauxon

    Your understanding of statistics is flawed. VERY flawed.

    If you have a 0.25% chance to miss, then you miss ON AVERAGE 1/400 attacks.

    Therefore the chance that the “attack that matters” misses, is 1/400. The length of the fight is completely irrelevant.

    If you are talking about a specific second, rather than a specific attack, then weapon speed matters (if you didn’t attack in that second, you couldn’t hit or miss).

    To put it another way, the length of the fight is proportional to the number of attacks. The number of misses is proportional to the number of attacks – it cancels out.

    • Greate Pier

      Well, yes and no… Probability-wise, every single attack carries that 0.25% chance to miss with it, so the only attack to consider is the one that matters…the 399 or even 39999 other attacks in that fight have no effect on whether that one attack will hit or not.

      Statistically though, on fights that last 200 attacks, you’ll see less misses than on fights that last 400(+) attacks

    • AskMrRobot

      We realize there was a minor error in one section of the above article — we’re going to rewrite it to more clearly explain the point.

  • Mrs. Robot

    Your stats are wrong dear:

    With a 0.25% chance to miss, you miss 1 out of 435 hits.

    In a 450 second fight, you are worried you’ll miss at the exact second it matters. That’s a 1:450 chance. ***<—- This is false, you are attacking all the time! You are definitely attacking at the second it matters.

    Multiply those together: 435 * 1 and you get 435

    So you have a 1 in 435 chance to miss at the exact wrong moment

    *fixed*

    Another way of thinking about it was your "possibly 1 miss / fight", which means what are the chances that miss happens at a crucial second? 1:450. This is close to the previous figure.

    Its still a DPS increase, just think you are overstating the stats for a critical miss.

    • AskMrRobot

      Yeah, there was an error in one section of the original post — we are going to rewrite it to make our point a bit clearer.

    • AskMrRobot

      Yeah, there was an error in one section of the original post — we are going to rewrite it to make our point a bit clearer.

    • whocaresbro

      its a video game. he fact that they put this work into it is because they are paid to advertise on her sites. hence making this a job. i highly douibt your job is to play wow. just play the game, use the optimizer and be happy. forget caps and all that. GAME. remember that before you criticize someones JOB.

      • Krysstal

        i think if they get thier job wrong you can critcize it when millions of people go to them for this info so telling them they are wrong so they can fix is the smartest thing you can do just remember that

  • Big Bad Wolf

    I fully trust Mr Robot and honestly it does a way better job with everything than I can with spreadsheets and everything else.
    I always stayed a little above the hit cap and honestly I always thought that it would be better to stay a little under and take the chance to miss and invest it in some other sec stat, than stay above and basically WASTE resources.
    Now I am finally backd up by your system and I can refer to annoying ppl “why are you 0.03% under hit cap?” with your calculation.

    Well just something with your forced hit cap.
    This option does NOT WORK for tanks.
    I am talking about my Blood DK tank. I was playing around a little and thought push the option and lets see what happens.
    Is there any way to make it work for tanks as well?!
    It is in some peoples believe that its viable and also a good dps increase.
    Would love to see that option, would even be enough if we could change the hard and soft caps on hit expertise as tanks.
    Somehow in the stat weight window it doesnt work on hit I believe.
    Thank you for the good work

    • Anglave

      The option to force being at or above the cap currently only works if you’re already relatively near the cap. If you’ve only got 3% hit and you turn on the option to force the cap, Mr. Robot is not going to be able to get you there, and will eventually give up.

  • Big Bad Wolf

    I fully trust Mr Robot and honestly it does a way better job with everything than I can with spreadsheets and everything else.
    I always stayed a little above the hit cap and honestly I always thought that it would be better to stay a little under and take the chance to miss and invest it in some other sec stat, than stay above and basically WASTE resources.
    Now I am finally backd up by your system and I can refer to annoying ppl “why are you 0.03% under hit cap?” with your calculation.

    Well just something with your forced hit cap.
    This option does NOT WORK for tanks.
    I am talking about my Blood DK tank. I was playing around a little and thought push the option and lets see what happens.
    Is there any way to make it work for tanks as well?!
    It is in some peoples believe that its viable and also a good dps increase.
    Would love to see that option, would even be enough if we could change the hard and soft caps on hit expertise as tanks.
    Somehow in the stat weight window it doesnt work on hit I believe.
    Thank you for the good work

    • Anglave

      The option to force being at or above the cap currently only works if you’re already relatively near the cap. If you’ve only got 3% hit and you turn on the option to force the cap, Mr. Robot is not going to be able to get you there, and will eventually give up.

    • shuka

      what is the hit cap for fw dw 2h, then? 7.5% or 26.5%?

  • Dejara Thoris

    For your next post, could y’all explain the situation with afflocks and other specs where you suggest hit well under the cap?

    • krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

      What’s going on with this buddy, is that the top end players find that, because once your dots are on the target they can’t miss, other stats like haste and mastery are much more useful until a later tier when hit cap is easier to approach.

    • krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

      What’s going on with this buddy, is that the top end players find that, because once your dots are on the target they can’t miss, other stats like haste and mastery are much more useful until a later tier when hit cap is easier to approach.

  • http://twitter.com/solitha Kathy Clifford

    The link from the optimizer warning to this article is broken. It says 2012/10 instead of 2012/11.

    • AskMrRobot

      oops — thanks, we’ll fix that.

  • http://twitter.com/solitha Kathy Clifford

    The link from the optimizer warning to this article is broken. It says 2012/10 instead of 2012/11.

    • AskMrRobot

      oops — thanks, we’ll fix that.

  • Krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

    hey Mr Robot’s programers,

    I’m not arguing your hit system because I’ve never had a problem being 0.05% below, and that’s the farthest off its put me. However I do have an issue with not being able to change the Crit hard cap. As a destruction warlock my hard cap is .70 not 1 because I use Demon Soul to bring it up 30%, also the Shadow Pan revered trinket gives approx 5% crit on use bringing it down to .65. and by the laws of relativity I should atleast be able to soft cap crit at 60% or .25 with both of those CD’s at my disposal.

    Didn’t want to get that detailed, but ya, your hit plan is awesome, i just wanna be able to change the stats I want for Crit and Mastery as much as Haste.

    • Krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

      I left out the 5% crit raid buff which brings the hard cap down to .60 and the soft cap for the CD’s i mentioned to .20 .

      • AskMrRobot

        We try to provide caps when they can be realistically reached and affect how you would gear. We’ll take a look at locks using Demon Soul and see if an adjustable soft-capped weight is necessary. We try to keep the number of caps that are “in play” to a minimum for one main reason: it makes the optimizer way faster.

        • Krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

          well I know that getting 20% crit is completely possible in tier 14 gear at lvl 90, so unless your really unlucky or bad at playing destruction, crit above 20% is wasted stat just like going over hit, or 25% if you don’t like the shadow pan trinket, which is BIS destruction imo because of everything I’ve said here.

          My only question to your response is, wouldn’t having these options only slow the calculation process if you are opting to use them? If my value for haste soft cap is null is a value of 0 being calculated? because it shouldn’t even be part of the equation imo.

          • farsightxr20

            > wouldn’t having these options only slow the calculation process if you are opting to use them?

            This isn’t really a matter of having to wait a bit longer for the results… the computation necessary to even find the results for precise caps scales exponentially with the number of number of stats you are trying to cap. So while optimizing for an exact hit cap may take a fraction of a second, optimizing for hit AND expertise could take a few hours. Optimizing for a third stat could take several years. And this is assuming Mr. Robot is only assisting you– he needs to run calculations for numerous concurrent users, which reduces the amount of CPU time available for your optimization.

            The calculation could theoretically be run in the client’s browser, which would reduce the server load but would require publication of AMR’s algorithms, and could still take several years to finish.

            Simply put, gearing for precise caps is very expensive and very rarely optimal. So AMR discourages doing so.

  • Krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

    hey Mr Robot’s programers,

    I’m not arguing your hit system because I’ve never had a problem being 0.05% below, and that’s the farthest off its put me. However I do have an issue with not being able to change the Crit hard cap. As a destruction warlock my hard cap is .70 not 1 because I use Demon Soul to bring it up 30%, also the Shadow Pan revered trinket gives approx 5% crit on use bringing it down to .65. and by the laws of relativity I should atleast be able to soft cap crit at 60% or .25 with both of those CD’s at my disposal.

    Didn’t want to get that detailed, but ya, your hit plan is awesome, i just wanna be able to change the stats I want for Crit and Mastery as much as Haste.

    • Krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

      I left out the 5% crit raid buff which brings the hard cap down to .60 and the soft cap for the CD’s i mentioned to .20 .

      • AskMrRobot

        We try to provide caps when they can be realistically reached and affect how you would gear. We’ll take a look at locks using Demon Soul and see if an adjustable soft-capped weight is necessary. We try to keep the number of caps that are “in play” to a minimum for one main reason: it makes the optimizer way faster.

        • Krakdotz – Mug’thul (US)

          well I know that getting 20% crit is completely possible in tier 14 gear at lvl 90, so unless your really unlucky or bad at playing destruction, crit above 20% is wasted stat just like going over hit, or 25% if you don’t like the shadow pan trinket, which is BIS destruction imo because of everything I’ve said here.

          My only question to your response is, wouldn’t having these options only slow the calculation process if you are opting to use them? If my value for haste soft cap is null is a value of 0 being calculated? because it shouldn’t even be part of the equation imo.

          • farsightxr20

            > wouldn’t having these options only slow the calculation process if you are opting to use them?

            This isn’t really a matter of having to wait a bit longer for the results… the computation necessary to even find the results for precise caps scales exponentially with the number of number of stats you are trying to cap. So while optimizing for an exact hit cap may take a fraction of a second, optimizing for hit AND expertise could take a few hours. Optimizing for a third stat could take several years. And this is assuming Mr. Robot is only assisting you– he needs to run calculations for numerous concurrent users, which reduces the amount of CPU time available for your optimization.

            The calculation could theoretically be run in the client’s browser, which would reduce the server load but would require publication of AMR’s algorithms, and could still take several years to finish.

            Simply put, gearing for precise caps is very expensive and very rarely optimal. So AMR discourages doing so.

  • Boradan

    Your arguments here are totally valid apart from the fact that your mathematics to back up your argument are TOTALLY wrong. You are stating that the variable changes for that all important ‘must hit now’ scenario and that is a blatant falsehood. A 0.25% miss chance means that every single spell you cast has a 0.25% chance to miss. This NEVER changes. Not once during any fight. Ever.
    Yes, in certain fights, you may NEED to hit during a certain phase, but factoring in the % of time that is valid is pure sophistry and is totally irrelevant. In burst phases (or whatever phases you need to hit) you still have a 0.25% miss chance for every single spell you cast/ability you use. Your miss chance is calculated on a PER CAST basis. Not over the duration of a fight/phase.
    A 0.25% miss chance means that you have a 1/400 chance to miss each time you do something. Its a constant for every ability for every portion of a fight, Saying that “In a 450 second fight, you are worried you’ll miss at the exact second it matters. That’s a 1:450 chance.” and then multiplying it by 435 is pure rubbish. In that SINGLE second it matters, you still have a 1/400 chance to miss that spell/ability. Your chance to miss RIGHT NOW is still 0.25%. You will miss that ‘all important’ spell once in 400 fights. No more, no less.

    • AskMrRobot

      Yeah, we realize there was an error in one section of the original post — we’re going to rewrite it to more clearly describe the point.

  • Boradan

    Your arguments here are totally valid apart from the fact that your mathematics to back up your argument are TOTALLY wrong. You are stating that the variable changes for that all important ‘must hit now’ scenario and that is a blatant falsehood. A 0.25% miss chance means that every single spell you cast has a 0.25% chance to miss. This NEVER changes. Not once during any fight. Ever. Yes, in certain fights, you may NEED to hit during a certain phase, but factoring in the % of time that is valid is pure sophistry and is totally irrelevant. In burst phases (or whatever phases you need to hit) you still have a 0.25% miss chance for every single spell you cast/ability you use. Your miss chance is calculated on a PER CAST basis. Not over the duration of a fight/phase.
    A 0.25% miss chance means that you have a 1/400 chance to miss each time you do something. Its a constant for every ability for every portion of a fight, Saying that “In a 450 second fight, you are worried you’ll miss at the exact second it matters. That’s a 1:450 chance.” and then multiplying it by 435 is pure rubbish. In that SINGLE second it matters, you still have a 1/400 chance to miss that spell/ability. Your chance to miss RIGHT NOW is still 0.25%. You will miss that ‘all important’ spell once in 400 fights. No more, no less.

    • AskMrRobot

      Yeah, we realize there was an error in one section of the original post — we’re going to rewrite it to more clearly describe the point.

  • Kithkannan

    First time user of MRRobot, but I have the exact oppisite problem. They way you had me reforge my items actually gave a higher agility, which meant higher damage over all, but you gave a 9.2 something in hit and i ended up lowering my dps by nearly 1000 points.

    • Doriste

      damage>DPS, if your damage went up, and your dps decreased, i don’t see an issue personally, the amount of damage you deal is more important then fluffing the meters and saying you can do 70 but be bottom of the damage charts,

  • Kithkannan

    First time user of MRRobot, but I have the exact oppisite problem. They way you had me reforge my items actually gave a higher agility, which meant higher damage over all, but you gave a 9.2 something in hit and i ended up lowering my dps by nearly 1000 points.

    • Doriste

      damage>DPS, if your damage went up, and your dps decreased, i don’t see an issue personally, the amount of damage you deal is more important then fluffing the meters and saying you can do 70 but be bottom of the damage charts,

  • garlorik

    So how do you figure out at which point it stos being worthwhile to give up the hit to get the extra stats. i don’t have the math to back up what i am trying to say but essentially what this entire article is saying is that if you miss even 1% of the time as long as your dps is 2% higher you come out way ahead so my question is at what point does it srop being worthwhile to give up the hit to get other stats? Its worth having only 75% hit if you are doing 300% dps so it doesnt just make sense at only having a really small chance to miss.

    to the point of missing at that critical moment, there is no critical moment where u have to hit because if your dps is higher you may be able to miss that critical moment entirely since the boss will die faster

    • Brandon Rinebold

      TLDR: Those wasted points of hit over the cap really drag down the average value of a reforge fast until you’re better off reforging to something else.

      Hit is always your most valuable stat for every class. As long as you are below the hit cap, 1 ilvl worth of hit will give you more DPS than 1 ilvl worth of any other stat. The reason you end up below hit cap is because the ‘leftover hit’ is worth absolutely nothing and you don’t end up with a nice perfect number very often.

      Example (all numbers are made up and don’t reflect actual stat weights):
      *You’re 10pts under the hit cap.
      *Your lowest reforge would cost you 20 of another stat.
      *Hit is worth 10% more than your next best stat

      That 10 useful hit is definitely better than 10 of whatever stat you could otherwise reforge to. However, it has 10 hit with absolutely 0 value dragging it down therefore reforging to hit is only worth half as much. Those 10 points with a value of 0 mean that the effective weight of hit is 10/20=50% of it’s normal value or 50%*110%=0.55 points of that other stat so reforging to the other stat is better than reforging to hit.

      Let’s change it up and say you’re 19 pts under the hit cap instead of 10.
      *You’re 19pts under the hit cap
      *Your lowest reforge would cost you 20 of another stat
      *Hit is worth 10% more than your next best stat

      In this case, your 19 useful points of hit only have 1 wasted point dragging down the value. Each point of hit is worth 19/20=95% of it’s normal value or 95%*110%=1.045 pts of that other stat so it’s still better than the other stat.

  • garlorik

    So how do you figure out at which point it stos being worthwhile to give up the hit to get the extra stats. i don’t have the math to back up what i am trying to say but essentially what this entire article is saying is that if you miss even 1% of the time as long as your dps is 2% higher you come out way ahead so my question is at what point does it srop being worthwhile to give up the hit to get other stats? Its worth having only 75% hit if you are doing 300% dps so it doesnt just make sense at only having a really small chance to miss.

    to the point of missing at that critical moment, there is no critical moment where u have to hit because if your dps is higher you may be able to miss that critical moment entirely since the boss will die faster

  • Khuya

    I believe ya

  • Khuya

    I believe ya

  • http://www.facebook.com/andrew.hout.73 Andrew Hout

    I see your logic, but that just doesn’t seem to work in practice for me. When I’m the slightest bit under hit cap I miss constantly, not this one out of every so many hundreds of spells. I will personally keep my hard cap. If going under it works for others then good for them.

  • http://www.facebook.com/andrew.hout.73 Andrew Hout

    I see your logic, but that just doesn’t seem to work in practice for me. When I’m the slightest bit under hit cap I miss constantly, not this one out of every so many hundreds of spells. I will personally keep my hard cap. If going under it works for others then good for them.

    • Brandon Rinebold

      Sir, either your memory or your math is faulty. It happens to everyone now and then. One of two things is happening: you saw 2-3 misses in a row when nearly hit-capped and never could get over that one incredibly unlikely situation in spite of it being incredibly abnormal or you weren’t actually within 0.05% of the hit cap (note that 1% or even 0.5% under the cap is not ‘almost capped’). IMO the second is more likely as I’ve been known to start tanking/DPSing in healing gear before.

      WoW is a UI sitting on top of a pseudorandom number generator and mathematical formulas. We’re not dealing with reality where probabilities are influenced by unknown factors, what you’re claiming is provably false. What you’re claiming is like saying “when I multiply, 2×4 always seems to equal 4″: human error is the only possible cause.

      • http://www.facebook.com/andrew.hout.73 Andrew Hout

        This was not a single occurrence. It was an observation over several attempts, on several nights in a two week raiding period. I do not carry an offset of gear so I wasn’t wearing the wring gear, and I have a macro to make sure I’m wearing my proper (in case of things like fishing hat/pole or Dalaran ring) set macro’d to one of my buffs so there is no starting in the wrong gear. And our dear friend Mr. Robot doesn’t have me within 0.05% under cap, he has me at 0.30%. I do not appreciate being called a liar. I have no reason to lie. You sir can stick where the sun does not shine.

        • Vincent

          Because I like hopping on threads close to a month old – Andrew – he didn’t call you a liar. And it doesn’t change the reality. You very well could have been the unlucky bastard that probability and statistics brutalized. It happens. But unless you’re using recount, parsing logs and can turn around and say, here I have 20 logs in a row that have me missing more than the supposed .3% miss rate I am geared for, then something doesn’t add up. And if your parses really do have you missing A LOT more than .3% – which is 3/1000 – then maybe something’s going on with the game itself being buggy?

          That all said, you are more than welcome to gearing to a cap. Not having to worry about a miss ever is good peace of mind, and I get it. However, I prefer to hit harder and accept the risk that I won’t be the most unlucky person in the world. Those 3 misses in a 1000 attempts tends to wash out in the random number generation. And as it turns out, with my parses it works out better that way.

  • Thameos

    Alright, I can definitely see this used well in pve, however, this has no application at all to pvp. In this expac, everything is polymorph CC and control while lining up damage at that perfect moment. There’s a lot of “empty” damage in between that means little to nothing while the player has a healer or is healing him/herself. If you miss at a crucial time in arenas, it could be easily the difference between a loss and a win at high mmr. Also, this means CC can miss as well. If for instance you’re a mage casting polymorph or a shadow priest casting psychic scream, if that misses, this is even easier the difference between a win and loss.

    So please, change the default options in pvp, as it is completely pointless.

  • Ghostrath

    Hum but isnt this wrong for every one that dual wields a weapon since extra hit/expertise do still affect the white blows, shouldnt they always be above the cap .
    I mean my warrior 2 wields one handed swords and the extra hit/expertise aint useless , ur only taking into consideration the special blows not the white hits , where the chance to miss is way more affected by this and does affect my rage generation.
    I see how this makes sense for mages/hunters/locks, casters in general tanks and 1 weapon users , but for me with 2 wield it doesnt seem like it, specially because ill attack with white blows a lot more often ill get a lot more misses and less rage along with the special being able to miss or dodge it.
    Or is my line of though wrong here? i kinda checked the values and didnt seem worth it to be under the cap in my warrior he seemed to hit less affecting my rage and so my dps.

    • http://www.facebook.com/vincent.polite Vincent Polite

      Hit will be valued less after you get above specials. So for melee classes hit isn’t wasted since it still has value. That value however is usually less than your other secondary stats, so the optimizer will respond accordingly.

      Not being able to miss specials certainly smooths out a rotation and affects resources like rage generation, focus, energy, etc. And I absolutely agree that not having to worry about the miss makes spamming your buttons a lot less psychologically troubling.

      But it’s also entirely possible that it’s ok to miss occasionally in return for harder hits.

      Put simplistically, if I hit something 2 times as hard every time, but only hit 50% (perfectly) of the time, except for the cases where my last swing is a miss, I do the exact same damage as someone who hits 100% of the time half as hard. So if I hit more than 2 times as hard, it’s OK for me to miss half the time.

      Obviously the problem is more complex than that. Some attacks have synergies with others, which can amplify the value/pain of a hit/miss. But that’s what the weighting is for. If you throw your character in a tool like simcraft and get the weighting from that, then plug that into Askmrrobot, then it does an excellent job of letting you know what’s what.

      Most people use AMR in the default mode, though – which is great for most things, but if you’re really trying to eke out that last % of throughput, you need to use your custom weights.

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  • KoolKidKaos

    I think this post makes a good points, except for mages. Mages highly depend on Combustion, and if that oops 1 miss happened to be only the opening combustion, you just settled for not ranking, or beating your fellow peers. It’s much safer to aim for 15% and proceed like normal.

    • KoolKidKaos

      some good points**

  • Borderlina

    Could you please input an option in there for those of us who use the Crystal of Insanity? 500 to all stats is pretty sweet, so being able to reforge around it would be nice :)

  • Gistwiki

    I guess I have a question here on the last point. Is Mr. Robot purposefully weighting hit very close to the cap lower than the weight that you give it? I ask, because I had the optimizer drop 118 spirit (which puts the character in question exactly at the hit cap, at a weight of 2.9 per point ) and 20 haste (the highest valued secondary stat in my custom weights at 1.46 per point) for 138 mastery (second highest valued secondary stat at 1.33 per point) and called it a boost in total score of 23, when by the weights given it should’ve been a loss in total score of ~188

    The only way that makes sense is if Spirit/hit at that point below the cap was valued at only ~38.38% of the given weight, and if that’s the case it seems rather disingenuous to make that last point if you aren’t actually going to properly follow through on it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Kevin-Watt/573096952 Kevin Watt

    Haha I really enjoyed this post :)

  • http://twitter.com/lesebyst Lesebyst

    Being under the hit cap for PVP is not worth the risk imho – you get kills through timing burst, not because you increased your dps by 0.25%. Having a stun/disarm/cc fail because you missed can be game breaking.

  • Lancelot

    Just 0.01% under your Cap gives you a 50% chance to miss on EVERY attack!
    Every Physic knows that Math can’t describe reality… thrust Mr. Einstein.

    All math about chances and odds is wrong when it comes to reality. Reality only knows 50% chances/odds:
    Something will happen OR something will not happen.
    There is no Spoon… there is only 0 or 1, light or darkness, good or bad… hit or miss.

    Beeing capped = 100% succesfull hit
    Not capped = 50% Chance to miss on EVERY attack <– thats what reality looks really.

    • krazyito

      You are pretty wrong. A hit/miss is not determined by a coin flip. The system does a roll to check if you hit or miss.

      Disclaimer: I am NOT saying this is how WoW determines a hit or miss, but it gives an example of the probablilty of you hit or missing.

      Lets say you have 5000 hit. Hit cap is 5100. For every attack the system does a /roll 5100 and if it hits 5001 or higher then you miss.

      Go into the game now and /roll 5100 until you hit a number at or above 5001. Its going to take you a long time. If it happens fairly quickly, do it again. See how long it takes. I could write a simple program to generate a number from 1-5100 for 1000+ attacks and tell me how many are over 5001. The answer is going to be very small and it is much less likely to miss then what you are saying.

      • Aleksonfire

        I think you are missing the point. The simple fact that is if you are not hit capped regardless of how small the chance, you still have the chance to miss every single attack. I have seen it happen. one of my raiders missed 20 special shots in a pull and he was only .36% under cap

        • Vincent

          Long dead thread, but the concept being espoused by Lancelot and Aleksonfire is so painfully out of line with reality, I had to comment.

          No one is denying that there’s a small chance that you’re the unlucky bastard at the end of the bell curve. And yes, if you’re really the truly unluckiest of all unlucky bastards it could happen “often.” But if you’re fighting bosses with any degree of regularity, and if you’re “rolling the dice” with any sort of frequency, the odds of that happening are very very small, regardless of whether you or your friend or your friend of a friend said that it happened to them.

          That said, while I myself missed 4 applications of CoD in a row back in Cata in a boss fight when I was only 2 points away from being hit capped, that’s never happened to me before or since.

          My dps however compared to an equally geared warlock was always superior except for that one particular fight. So… you can be a weaker dps player 99.99% of the time by forcing the hit cap, or you can be the best dps you can be gear-wise 99.99% of the time by risking that 0.01% chance that you become unlucky bastard. It’s your choice.

          The numbers may not be exact but the concept is the same.

          @krazyito is absolutely correct here.

          • Worshaka

            From a risk management point of view… that description is likely attributed to a really bad attempt at a boss. Conversely if you were to hit cap what would you have lost? 100 dps? I guarantee it’s so marginal as to not bother measuring, yet what you described had an meaningful negative impact.

            WoW is about making numbers fall in your favour.

          • http://www.facebook.com/vincent.polite Vincent Polite

            I agree, WoW is about making numbers fall in your favor. Scale notwithstanding, 100dps for a single person doesn’t mean much. Sum that up over 17 more dps. Now make that 100dps into 1000dps Add 17 dps not eating +300stat food instead of +275. Every little bit counts. Summed and smoothed out over attempts, this catastrophic failure that we’re so worried about will happen so infrequently as to not be a factor.

            Risk vs. reward – You do the best you can to create the best opportunity for your raid team. There’s something to be said to have 0% risk of failure at the cost of an theoretically small result, but that’s not the point. Over time, the better results can come from not being hit capped. The vagaries of RNG (besides hitting but crating) for procs and latency will likely make more of a difference than being slightly under the hit cap.

  • Aleksonfire

    Mr. Robot. I am not a gambling man… I do apologize but perhaps you should explain to people just how hit is calculated. If you have .25% chance to miss, If you have bad luck you can miss every swing. The laws of probability tell us that if every swing is a calculated risk, you have a chance to fail everytime. For example… In my raid the other day we had a hunter who was .36% under hit cap. His dps is fine most of the time. However in one of the pulls his dps dropped through the floor and upon evaluation of the logs we noticed he missed 20 of his skill shots. I’m not saying that there is anything wrong with your theory here, just that there is not enough emphasis on the gambling side.

  • MartyK

    Everyone here talks about hit stats.
    As a destruction warlock, haste has always been my number 1 priority right after hit. Why are you advising that mastery now be my number 1 stat after hit? Especially on bosses where you need burst DPS

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=21003660 Keith William Gretton

    I don’t mind being .15 under or even .25 but anything more than that and I start to bulk at the idea given how dependant my spec is on successful DoT refreshes so I can use my DD Procs before they drop off and so I can in turn generate more. It would be nice if there was an option to set the minimum and maximum tolerances for the cap. At the moment my two optimization options are .31 under or .18 over (with the forced cap), neither of which I find acceptable given that in my current reforging (done by myself) I’m exactly at 5101 rating

  • Naokai

    I have one simple question about your example with the Score when going 20 points below the cap:

    How comes in the first part you reforge away 600 Crit (Stat weight 1.8) and get 600 Hit (Stat weight 2) and in the second one you reforge 580 Mastery to 580 Hit which is only weighted with 1.2?

    This makes the whole example completely invalid.

    Am i missing something here or are you just trying to fool us? ;)

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  • http://www.facebook.com/buckwilds4437 Marc Wilds

    Pvp specs should always enforce hit caps imo. A missed cc can be a crucial game changer. No amount of even damage is worth a missed cc imo

  • http://www.facebook.com/buckwilds4437 Marc Wilds

    Pvp specs should always enforce hit caps imo. A missed cc can be a crucial game changer. No amount of even damage is worth a missed cc imo

  • Brad

    I’d really like to see the option to put in the hit chance we want your calculators to aim for. I personally like to sacrifice 1% hit chance for a little more haste and crit. Is there a chance you could implement this as a feature. Juggling the stat weights won’t do it. I would like a field that allows me to put in a specific % value for hit and let your “machine” do the number crunching.

  • Brad

    I’d really like to see the option to put in the hit chance we want your calculators to aim for. I personally like to sacrifice 1% hit chance for a little more haste and crit. Is there a chance you could implement this as a feature. Juggling the stat weights won’t do it. I would like a field that allows me to put in a specific % value for hit and let your “machine” do the number crunching.

  • Dale Massingill

    i’m 0.19% under the cap can u help me

    MmDelta

    • zoopercat

      Open the options menu. At the bottom, check the option to force the hit cap. That should do the trick :)

    • zoopercat

      Open the options menu. At the bottom, check the option to force the hit cap. That should do the trick :)

  • Dale Massingill

    So ok yah it took it off and all BUT am i doing something rong with my frost DK it DID say i was under the hit cap i’m trying my bast to fix it so that i dont miss as much i wood like my hit cap to be ded on the mark or just a little bit batter i dont wont to be under u kno… Thats why i askt if yall can help me fix it so that i wont be under the hit cap
    MmDelta DK Frost

    • ChandraNalar

      hmmmmm…ummm….what…. are you really worried about the specifics of your build in this game mathematically when you can barely spell 4th grade words.

  • joschle3

    When I optimize my arcane mage , Mr Robot tries to get me to reforge to Expertise on a few items. Is this a glitch?

    • Myth

      No. Expertise gives spell hit for casters now in MoP. Works exactly like spell hit.

  • Longstreet

    What about Prot Warriors. Are they being analyzed by the formula that maximizes DPS? If so, is the answer just to adjust the weights?

    • zoopercat

      The weights for tanks are around survival. High hit/exp are still good for tanks to get rage generation. But yeah, everything is tailored to each class and role :)

    • zoopercat

      The weights for tanks are around survival. High hit/exp are still good for tanks to get rage generation. But yeah, everything is tailored to each class and role :)

  • shamator

    im still confused on why haste is better for ele shammy than mastery. haste has a cap right? if i get my haste up it makes my lightning bolt pretty fast. then if i use bloodlust ill be under 1 second so itd be wasting stats. not even considering other haste buffs like trinks and whatnot

    • Mansha

      for ele shamans haste doesn’t have a cap.

    • Mansha

      for ele shamans haste doesn’t have a cap.

    • Worshaka

      The word cap being applied to haste has always been unwisely used. There are points in which haste decreases to be less valuable, but it never caps. Cap truely meaning that having any more of it has 0 effect. Until you have enough haste to get all your spells lower than the enforced 1 sec GCD, haste will have some benefit.

      • Worshaka

        Actually even then… if you have a DoT that is affected by haste, it continues to be increased by haste, so there would be 0 cap for you.

  • Dale

    ok now u pisses me off i don’t care how long ago this masg was sent but you dont FUCKING PICK ON MY DAM SPELLING i have a spelling disorder ok so FUCKING bare with me!!!!!!!!!!

  • Worshaka

    You are also assuming that players react to missed spells perfectly, in that, if I miss a DoT I instantly know to recast that on my next spell. But due to how spell queuing and reality works, that never occurs. That means the weight of Hit is often underestimated. While experimenting with being under the hit cap is something a cutting edge player might want to experiment with, it’s far safer and easier to sit at the cap.

  • Worshaka

    You are also assuming that players react to missed spells perfectly, in that, if I miss a DoT I instantly know to recast that on my next spell. But due to how spell queuing and reality works, that never occurs. That means the weight of Hit is often underestimated. While experimenting with being under the hit cap is something a cutting edge player might want to experiment with, it’s far safer and easier to sit at the cap.

  • mage

    i once missed a Combustion while on a heroic try that could have ended in a first kill. i dont care for 20 crit rating when there is this one fight where it DID go wrong (i dont care for the chance that it happens again. i dont want it to happen again)

  • SirJerjer

    A quick question: Unless Mr Robot can reforge to a neat ~7,5% hit and ~7,5% exp, does it try to balance the two equally? It keeps wanting to put me under both caps when I can easily reach one or even both at the sacrifice of some other stats.

  • Darien

    .25% = 25/10000 = 5/2000 = 1/400
    OR
    1% = 1/100 divide by four = 1/400
    so, 1 in 435 is wrong as well.

  • rgoknot

    Well I am more of a Quester than Raider, but in any event, I had been doing the tried and true method for Warrior by capping out, then geming everything to strength. My Health at this point on an ilvl 476 arms warrior was 370,319, DPS 7954 and Damage about 25k. I followed all the optimization suggestions and it dropped my health to 368k and DPS to about 7800. I did not see a noticeable difference in my kill efficiency, but I can definitely tell you there are times when that last 2k in health is pretty important, especially with Isle of Thunder rare’s.

    • Vincent

      If you’re just a quester, you need to consider that you are getting hit more often than you would if you were a dps raider. Askmrrobot is certainly optimized towards raiding, and it’s also set up presuming that you’re not tanking things, so survivability shouldn’t be an issue.

      In regards to your dps is dropping, it’s likely that askmrrobot.com is recommending levels of expertise and hit that are too high. Most quest content doesn’t require the additional hit/expertise ratings that raids do. So your likely situation is that you are being told to reforge and gem into hit/expertise stats that aren’t necessary which causes you to lose out in other ways.

      Also, unless you are using all your cooldowns properly on things that live a long time, it’s highly unlikely that your parses will be statistically viable. You need to beat on something for a long time and do the optimal rotation to maximize your dps gains.

      MrRobot doesn’t necessarily agree with other optimizers. It’s coded differently and there are certain things that the user must do (provide customized stat weights for example) that most people don’t do because they’re lazy or they don’t know how. But if you say ran simcraft, got your stat weights, and plugged them into MrRobot, it’s pretty damned accurate since at that point it’s just math.

      The only challenges as I see it are : speed of calculation, trinket modeling, and tier bonus modeling — but all in all, AskMrRobot.com gets me close enough where its more likely that it’s me mucking up a rotation or having bad latency that causes the dps loss, not the optimizer itself.

  • Powlpatine

    I’m not worried about missing the one crucial spell that will kill the boss, I’m worried about missing the rotation-critical spell with a long cooldown. As an ele shaman, if my Elemental Blast misses, I lose out on the haste, mastery or crit buff. If my Earth Shock or Flame Shock misses, I will have missed fulmination stacks from LB/CL, 33% less damage from my LvB, or missed Lava Surge procs – often all 3, as missing a FS means I have to re-cast FS when the shock cooldown is back, so I am also delaying my next ES, thus wasting fulmination, LvB damage AND lava surge procs.

    Missing a single spell is often more of a damage loss than the damage that spell would’ve done. This is why we always prefer to be at or over hit cap, never under.

  • Lard

    I am a pally tank and I am wondering about the hit/exp cap chance because my Shield of the Righteous is not only a attack for me, but also a defensive CD. Wouldnt I want that cap so I can assure I can have the reduced damage?

  • Killoderios

    I am 0.07% under the Cap.

    so my chance to miss is 1 to 1929

    is that worth to optimize as well?, also as an affliction Warlock which hit is also not as important as a mage?

    i personally think, that would be a DPS Loss indeed, because every point you are above the Hit Cap, you are wasting points, so you should get as close as possible or a little bit above.

    i am not sure, because i was not theorycrafting about it, but maybe someone likes to.

    Also we have to see the point, that you just can not get closer to the hit cap, without going a lot more over the top.
    if i may be wrong, please correct me

    • Loganisis

      Points above the soft cap (yellow) are not ‘wasted’ universally. Dual-wield classes do still gain some advantage from hit past 7.5%, how much depends on the class and it’s design. For a range class or a single-weapon class this is true. But Fury, and then the dual-wield builds for DKs and Rogues (dunno about monks) would still have some value. Fury probably more than the others due to resource management.

  • Loganisis

    Regarding the cost-benefit analysis of precise hit-capping…

    Big-picture wise, the difference is tiny between 7.45% hit-cap (melee) and 7.50%.

    However, just as conversely, there’s no benefit between increasing another stat by 0.05% (less if it’s a stat subject to DR) by the very same logic. The likelihood of that extra bit of something else benefiting you in a fight is probably very similar between any of the stats.

    I do agree the value, over a million GCDs, of ‘wasting’ stats over hit-cap just to guarantee you never miss is probably less than being slightly under since those are ‘wasted’ stats for most classes.

    I would be interested in your thinking about warriors, which is kind of a unique case where ‘hit-cap’ is a soft cap and hit past 7.5% has value (though expertise has none past 7.5 in most fights). In the case of warriors, wouldn’t it seem probable that hit slightly past 7.5% is more valuable than hit below it, not just because your guaranteed not to miss a yellow, but because you land slightly more white attacks and you smooth out rage generation oh so very slightly?

    I’m coming at this from a warrior-centric viewpoint so it’s a little different than most other classes and even other classes with white damage due to the resource element.

    Ultimately I can understand the logic of:

    X units of Stat Priority 1 + Y units of Stat Priority 3 > A units of Hit and B units of hit ‘wasted’ over the cap.

    Ultimately it comes down to the cost/benefit comparison at the margin. And if you can get a point or two over at the cost of a little bit of the lowest priority stats (e.g. haste for warriors) it would seem to make it worthwhile; whereas in a different scenario a point or two above hit cap at the cost of a good chunk of priority 1 stats (e.g. crit) and priority 3 (e.g. mastery below hit/exp cap) would be less valuable.

    However it’s all a huge amount of discussion over a very miniscule impact. :p

  • Collin Nonapplicable

    I really like chicken. Is there any way you could add some to the site?

  • Darmór

    ‘Worried you’ll miss that one crucial shot, and the raid will wipe?’

    As a tank, yes because missing a taunt is quite bad for most fights, and could easily wipe a group. E.g. Missing the taunt on Lei Shen with the Decapitate would have been quite bad, the other tank might not be able survive another hit especially when your progressing onto it and your gear is on the line for being able to kill the boss.

    I (and most tanks) would rather have that taunt definitely hitting and lose a little bit of damage mitigation. So that argument does stand quite well, maybe not so much for dps than tanks or healers (Healadins losing a Lay on Hands for example), but like others have said, on my Shad Priest I would happily lose a little dps to make sure my Devouring Plague hit every time, because that would bump up the little lost damage.

  • Captsaveaho

    I’m a preist and it keeps putting me 4% under hit cap puts me at 11% is that right ?

    • zoopercat

      Can you give me your character name and realm? I’ll take a look.

      • Captsaveaho

        Captsaveaho on winterhoof